The Vig

A couple of things have struck me in the last day or two as I try to wrap my uneducated mind around this $700 billion bailout.

• If we’re really in a credit crunch, why haven’t banks begun terminating credit cards?  Why too do they keep sending out pre-approved offers?
• If the Treasury wants to buy these securities at maturity pricing, can I sell them my IRA at the same imaginary price?  I have a feeling my current portfolio will make me a multi-billionaire in 30 years.  Could I get that money now?  No, you can’t see what you’re buying.  Just hand me the money and I’ll give you my stuff in a plain manila envelope.  I promise.
• Hearing Hugh Hewitt demand the Democrats pass the Paulson Plan as-is is enough to make me want to oppose it.
• Listening to Adam Curry’s podcast yesterday gave me a completely different perspective on this bailout plan.  Basically he said we should call Paulson’s bluff.  “What is the ‘or else?’”  He makes an excellent point, I think.  They’re not spelling out the consequences of inaction.  All we’ve heard is Chuck Schumer telling us he gulped when the consequences were described to him.  But will he tell us what they are?  No.  Curry thinks it’s a final play for power by Bernanke and Paulson.  And it’s unconstitutional.  Some interesting stuff to think about.
• Along the same vein, anyone else remember folks in the administration telling us the Iraq War would pay for itself?

The longer this drags out, the more I’m leaning toward no bailout.  Not without some serious strings attached.  Some strings that make Wall Street howl and wonder if maybe the alternative might indeed be better.  Let’s find out exactly how bad they want this deal.

They put in $15,600 and took out $599,800.  Just another story from the Bush economy.

At some point the smart people on the tee-vee are going to figure out the free money from home equity lines is no longer flowing into the economy.  Once they do, this talk of a “mild” recession will cease.

He’s pushing back against this temporary repeal of the gasoline tax and good for him, I say.  This idea is about as stupid as the one the Senate Republicans floated a few years ago when they wanted to send us all a check for $100 to help pay for the $3 gas.  Giving me $2 a week for the summer isn’t going to help me a bit.  If McCain and Clinton, the idea’s two biggest cheerleaders, were serious about helping out with oil prices, they’d start by strengthening the dollar.  You do that, and oil prices will fall.  But if there’s anything we’ve learned in the last 8 years, it’s easier to just write a check.

For the first time in a while I have to file Oregon taxes again.  I did the free online thing through H&R Block this year, but it didn’t include the state forms.  I mean I can do the state thing if I want, but it’s $29.95.  But since I only owe maybe $50, its not worth it.  So I’ve completed them by hand.  Thus, no blogging.  Perhaps tomorrow.

In the meantime, it’s been awful quiet in the Noodle camp.  I wonder if that means anything.

Last year, Morgan Stanley wrote down $3.7 billion (with a b) in assets related the the sub-prime mess.  A month later, they announced they were getting a $5 billion (again, with a b) from the Chinese to help them weather the storm they created.

Yesterday shareholders had an opportunity to send Morgan a message at their annual meeting.  Instead they re-elected the entire board.  That’ll show ‘em.

From the “you’re pulling my leg, right?” files comes the Countrywide REO website.  These are properties financed by Countrywide that have foreclosed and are now back with the bank.  According to this guy, there’s almost $3 billion worth of property available.  And that’s just asking price!

Just for fun, I poked around the site to see what’s available here in Vancouver.  There’s a condo listed down near the I-5/SR-14 interchange that caught my eye.  It’s a good location, just west of the freeway and near the river.  But for $450,000?  Thank you, no.  Between the mortgage and HOA dues, it’s over $2500/month to live there!  This in a city where the average family makes less than $45,000/year.  By way of comparison, my old condo in Mountain Park, also a 2 bed/2 bath, is going for $185k right now.  Still way too rich, but I’d take Mountain Park over The Couv any day.

I remember back in the heady days of 2001 and 2002, Limbaugh used to go on and on about politicians stepping over themselves to get a picture with the president.  Now?  His co-workers can’t stand him.  I can’t imagine what it’s like to be him right now.  He must want to quit, and I bet were this any other gig he might have by now.  So instead he’s stuck in a life he can’t get out of.  I sort of feel sorry for him.  Sort of.

Did you see where the Clintons have made something like $120 million since Bill left office?  A ton of that was in speaking fees and the like.  George Herbert Walker Bush also made a bunch of money in the mid-90s giving speeches.  I wonder how much GWB will make in the next decade.  I wonder if he’ll even try.

The free preview of the MLB Extra Innings package has come to an end, and now I’m completely Jonesing for it.  But I just can’t justify the $159 or whatever it is.  I mean sure, Comcast will break it into three easy payments, but that’s not the point.  I won’t be home to watch any of the games and besides, if I need a fix, I know where I can go.

I checked out the MLB.com website the other day to see what alternatives I have.  For all baseball’s current faults, they’ve done a tremendous job with their site and have created a ton of interactive features.  Jerom, for example, subscribes to the Gameday Audio service so he can listen to A’s games wherever he is.  Others seem to enjoy the MLB.tv experience.  Me?  I don’t have the patience for the radio and watching TV on my computer just doesn’t do it.

So I’m going to check out this mobile service of theirs which promises to send text and video messages right to my Palm, which is perfect for me.  Little bite-sized nuggets delivered right to my pocket wherever I am.  And at $3.99.month, it’s very reasonably priced.

What’s the problem, you ask?  Well…  It’s hard to talk about.  I guess I’ll just come right out and say it.  I love two teams.  It should never have been like this, of course.  I should have chosen a team like every other grade school kid and just moved on with my life.  But growing up without cable and in a house that didn’t really value sports, I didn’t have any sort of compass to guide me in any one direction.  Sure, the Dodgers were on TV every Saturday, and I guess I learned their line-up, but I wasn’t passionate.  And we made a few trips to Seattle to see the Yankees or Red Sox play the Mariners, but rooting for the Argyros/Smulyan Mariners was never a serious option.  The Mariners were the Washington Generals.

We caught the playoffs and the World Series every year.  I fell in love with the ‘79 Pirates and the ‘86 Mets, but nothing ever stuck.  I was a baseball dilettante.  And I honestly still am.  I’m jealous of people who have their team.  I remember taking my buddy Doug, a die hard Orioles fan, to a series in Baltimore a decade ago.  Watching him cheer for his team in the home whites was something I’ll never forget.  I’ve always wanted that feeling.

The closest I’ve ever come was watching the Diamondbacks that year I lived in Phoenix.  I probably hit 40 games that season and had a blast.  Loved every minute of it.  Part of the reason I moved to Phoenix in the first place was to watch the Diamondbacks and Randy Johnson.  The Mariners tore my heart out when they traded him away, and I’ve swore to never cheer for them again.  The M’s are dead to me.

I digress.  So I spent that season following the D-Backs.  That should have been the end of it, right?  No.  For the last few years, I’ve secretly been cheering for the Pirates again.  I can’t explain why.  It may have been an early series I saw down in Phoenix when the Pirates brought in a truckload of young arms and proceeded to dominate the D-Backs.  It could be the fact I just need to be abused.  Whatever it is, I always catch myself glancing in their direction.  A big reason I want that Extra Innings package, for example, is because I can watch the Pirates.  In the basement, with the shades pulled.

So what do I do?  Do I get the Pirates?  Do I get the Diamondbacks?  Will they even let me do both?  Or would that just be crazy?

I guess it’s time to grow up and commit one way or the other.  Fidelity sucks.

Rumors out if the Hawk camp this afternoon suggest the front office was let go. If true, it’s a dark day in Hawk history. This does not bode well for the future of the franchise, either in Portland or elsewhere. It’s time for the league to step in and take over.

Update: Well, it’s true. The two J’s have cleaned house and slashed their payroll down to next to zero. The question now is what did the league office know and when? And what does the league office do now? There’s an outside audit of the books due to be conducted in the next several days, the purpose of which is unclear. There remain, as of this morning, dozens of unpaid bills and many upset vendors. League president Ron Robison has cast his lot with the two J’s. He may be in for a shock over the next several days as the depth of the Hawks’ leadership and finance crises is discovered.

The organization has spent the last few seasons trading on the names and reputations of its employees. From it’s inception, the Winter Hawks have always been a mom-and-pop operation where deals were more likely done via handshake than by contract. You can thank Dean Vrooman for the majority of that goodwill. He’s gone. And now so is the rest of their goodwill crew. Like Vrooman, I expect those let go today will take the high road, at least publicly. Fans all know those were decent, hardworking employees that were let go this morning.

Without their human capital, it’s difficult to see how the organization can continue. Apparently there’s a deal in place to move the franchise to Salem by 2010. All that stands in the way is about $2 million in improvements to the Expo Center on the state fairgrounds. Will they be able to make it that long? Or will they simply fold-up the tents and try and reconstitute themselves in two years? I’m guessing they’ll do their best to limp along.

They’ll be doing it without me. I love hockey and I love the Winter Hawks, but the combination of today’s firings and the impending move to Salem has me at the end of my rope. I don’t see how I can pour my heart out for an organization this poorly managed, and one planning to rip my heart out by moving 50 miles away from my home.

Andy offers his thoughts here. Dylan B. here.

I got sucked into John Wayne’s “Tall in the Saddle” this morning on TCM but had to leave about a half-hour before the end. So here I am at Fry’s, picking it up for $7.99 on dvd just to find out how it ends. How dumb am I?