The Vig

Time was Blaer fans were as classy as they were knowledgable.  Apparently those days are over.  A decade of dominance?  When will they win their championship?  Sheesh.

A couple of things.

1. As long as Kobe Bryant is in the league, it is his trophy to lose.  He just turned 30 two weeks ago and he’s got a pretty decent cast around him for the next few years.  And the Lakers will make another move in the next few years to get their next super-star.  So the Blazers have to get past him.  See also #3.
2. Utah is going to be really good for the next several years.  They just locked up Deron “the next great Blazer point guard!” Williams and Boozer will get paid in 2010 as well.  They’re going to be every bit as good as the Blazers during this stretch.
3. There is nothing stopping another Eastern Conference team from assembling a team for a one or two years run like the Celtics did last season.  When LeBron moves to New Jersey/Brooklyn, that franchise will become a destination for guys fishing for their rings.  You could easily see Kobe heading to Brooklyn in 2011.  Easily.  You think that team might win a ring or two?  There will be lots of misfit puzzle pieces floating around the league for the next several years and lots of places for them to land.  To wit…
4. The Kumbaya-era of the Blazer franchise will be coming to an end.  At some point, one or more of the following will be asking for a ticket out of town:  Outlaw, Webster, Bayless, Fernandez.  Now it may well turn out that two of them will be gone just as part of the process, but there’s a log jam at the 2-3 and there’s no way Nate will be keeping them all happy.  Especially not this season.  Someone’s going to start griping.  Especially when there are any number of teams out there (Utah?) who could use a man like Webster.

The Blazers definitely have a wide-open window coming up, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that they’re going to win a championship.  I’d like to see Brandon Roy play an injury-free season first.  I’d also like to see Greg Oden play period.  Let’s maybe wait a little while before we go getting all giddy over the prospect of a Blazer championship.  At least that’s how we did it back in the day.

Bill Simmons thinks so.

From what I was told by multiple people in New Orleans, the Blazers made a strong push, and Kidd made it clear to everyone involved he didn’t want to play there. Now, I don’t know the exact trade offer, but I’m assuming it was something like this: Kidd and a smaller contract (somebody like Antoine Wright) for Raef LaFrentz (monster contract expiring in 2009), Steve Blake ($13 million total for this year and the next two), the rights to Rudy Fernandez, a lottery-protected No. 1 and $3 million — which would have pushed Portland into the playoffs this season (even at this point of his career, Kidd is a significant upgrade over Jarrett Jack and Blake) and made the Blazers a genuine contender if/when Greg Oden comes back strong next season.

Here’s the irony: Kidd didn’t want to play in Portland because he wanted to win a title and, by all accounts, his heart was set on playing in Dallas. Fine. But just for the hell of it, let’s say the Blazers swung the Kidd deal and signed Antawn Jamison for their entire mid-level this summer, giving them a nucleus of Roy, Oden, Kidd, Jamison, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack and Joel Przybilla next season. Um, wouldn’t the ‘09 Blazers have had a higher ceiling than the ‘08 or ‘09 Mavs? Wouldn’t that have been a better fit for Kidd because those Blazers could have run with them?

Oh my. First, the deal wouldn’t have involved Blake. They would have moved Jarrett Jack. Second, the rights to Rudy Fernandez? That would have been a deal breaker. If what they say is true, he’s the two-guard of the future.

The point of the current process is to be prepared to make a run in two or three years, not next year. The path for the next two seasons is still way too treacherous, especially with Kobe and Gasol tearing things up down in LA and a motivated Shaq Fu in Phoenix. So why sell out 2012 for a second round playoff exit next season? Makes no sense.

That said, wouldn’t it have been fun to see Kidd running the point?

PS  Casey hates Simmons.  But that’s not exactly news.