The Vig

I turned off the computer this morning and headed out for a walk.  I had some podcasts to catch up on and wanted to burn out some carbons as well.  It was a good cleansing.

While I was out there, I thought a lot about an admonition I’d received from TeacherRefPoet.  He’s been pretty clear on his blog that a line had been crossed.  He’s correct when he suggests I’ve become the thing I hate.  (To clarify, he was speaking to someone else in that comment…but if the shoe fits…).  So yeah, I’ve become no better than the Obama is a Muslim crowd.  I get that and I’ve thought a lot about it.

I thought I’d come to a conclusion when I arrived back home.  I was going to leave it be.  There are enough “real” journalists up in Alaska right now tracking stories down that they don’t need my help.   The story, whatever it is, will come out soon enough.

The “story” came along at the perfect time.  It’s a three-day weekend where the press is catching a breather between conventions.  Maybe they’re taking a day off.  The hurricane story also helped jam up the news channels.  So there’s a lot of dead space in there where everyone is trying to figure out who the heck Sarah Palin is.  And it turned out there was some fuel laying around looking for a spark.  Voila!

This could have been avoided in a couple of ways.  First, McCain could have done his homework.  Had he, I don’t think any of this would have happened because Palin wouldn’t have been the selection.  Alternatively, McCain could have done his homework and shown his work as he was doing it.  This is what happened with Romney and Pawlenty.  Lots are already known about both, good and bad.  Had McCain thrown her into the crucible three or four weeks ago (or longer…he’s had the nomination locked up since February), this could have all come out and the public could have weighed in.  Instead, this was hastily thrown together, and now everyone’s learning on the fly.

Back to TRP’s point for a moment.  I think he’s probably right when he suggests we should leave the kids out of this.  None of the five Palin kids asked to be thrust into this, and truth-be-told, a week ago, I don’t think any of them believed they’d be here today.  TRP comes from a unique perspective as a high school teacher.  A popular one at that.  He’s probably seen dozens of Bristol Palins come through his classroom, and has probably had more than a few confide in him things they can’t tell their parents.  So when he sees me go after Bristol (I want to quit using her first name…but what else do I call her?  The Kid?  That seems even more demeaning…), he sees me going after one of those kids he’s helped.  Heck, those are kids I’ve helped.

Am I going after her though?  The story is about the mom and her decision making.  Her kids are in the crossfire.  And honestly, if there weren’t questions being asked, then the McCain could continue to pass off the Palins as the Cleavers, and no one would have been the wiser.  The thing is, they aren’t.  They’ve got all the drama of any other family.  And that’s a huge reason I don’t want them anywhere near the Naval Observatory.  I look at Sarah Palin and all I see is Lynn Snodgrass with a banana clip.

Like I said, the media channels should start filling with some of the Palin background story this week.  It will make an interesting juxtaposition against the Republican convention; we’re trying to figure out who Palin is while McCain and the Republicans try and explain who they are after Bush.  Should be a fun week, but I’m going to do my best to refrain from commenting further on the maternity of the youngest Palin and will leave the rest of the children alone.  It’s what Barry wants, it’s what TRP wants.  I can do that.

After this?  We are roughly 40 days from the vice presidential debate.  At that time, the nation will be tuning in to see whether Palin has the chops to make it as VP.  She’s got a tone to brush up on between now and then.  McCain’s error here, and Karl Rove will back me up on this, is he’s changed this election from a referendum on whether Barack Obama is fit to be commander-in-chief to a referendum on whether Sarah Palin is fit to be a proverbial heartbeat away.  In that scenario, the Republicans lose.  The genius of Rove was that neither 2000 nor 2004 were about his guy, both were about the other guy.  All Bush had to do both times was correctly read a teleprompter and stay out of the way.  At this point, I think that’s all Obama has to do.

Does Palin survive?  As of this second, I don’t see how McCain can jetison her.  The base is over-the-moon with joy at her selection and they will walk if she’s dropped.  McCain cannot win without them, so he’s stuck.  His hope right now is that an energized Chritian base will overcome the middle-of-the-roaders who are horrified by Palin.  It will be obvious by the second week of October whether Palin has crossed the respectability threshold with the swing voters.  If she doesn’t, it will be too late to change course.  By then McCain may well wish he’d dumped her this week.